Flu forecast
What can we expect this flu season?
Chances are, you’ve seen the flu shot reminders popping up at your local retail pharmacies and grocery stores. Although the season comes around once a year, the influenza virus itself is constantly changing. Shalika Katugaha, MD, system medical director of Infectious Diseases at Baptist Health, helped us look ahead to the flu forecast for the 2024-2025 season.
Flu season is coming
Flu season occurs in the fall and winter in the U.S., with activity typically starting as early as October and peaking between December and February. It can last as late as May. More specific timing of the season’s peak is difficult to predict and can vary in different parts of the country.
“Flu is among the deadliest vaccine-preventable diseases in the country,” said Dr. Katugaha. “Annual vaccination is recommended for everyone 6 months and older. Also, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends getting a flu shot before peak season. Make plans to get it now.”
Flu season predictions
Experts look at flu activity in the southern hemisphere to predict what we may experience in the U.S. each year.
“Two countries in South America and South Africa experienced high levels of influenza activity,” said Dr. Katugaha. “This means we may see more people becoming ill and a higher rate of hospitalizations this season.”
In addition to the flu, people should also be vigilant about contracting COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which also will be circulating this winter, said Dr. Katugaha. According to the CDC, the flu shot can be given at the same time as vaccines against COVID-19 and RSV.
Be aware of 'bird flu'
Another virus with flu-like symptoms to be aware of is “bird flu” or the avian influenza A (H5N1) virus. It usually spreads in birds and livestock but can sometimes transmit to humans. There have been outbreaks in poultry and dairy cows in multiples states across the U.S., and several human cases have been detected among American dairy and poultry workers. While the current public health risk is low, the CDC is closely monitoring bird flu activity and illnesses.
“Let your doctor know if you develop flu-like symptoms following close contact with poultry or cattle, even if it was at a petting zoo, county fair or farm,” said Dr. Katugaha, who recommended washing your hands immediately after coming into contact with these animals. “I also recommend people avoid drinking raw milk, which can increase your risk of catching bird flu.”
Time to get a flu shot
“The influenza vaccine remains our best defense against the flu,” said Dr. Katugaha. “It not only helps prevent the flu, but also reduces the risk of severe illness and hospitalization for those who do get it.”
Because the flu virus changes each year, the composition of the vaccines is updated annually. The CDC expects all versions available in the U.S. to be “trivalent,” which means they protect against three different strains.
Until recently, doctors recommended people with severe egg allergies be vaccinated in a medical setting, like a doctor’s office, instead of a retail pharmacy. These additional safety measures were dropped as of last season.
For adults ages 65 and older, the CDC recommends a special flu vaccine that’s higher than the standard dose. Studies suggest that, in this age group, high-dose vaccines are potentially more effective than the standard version.
“You'll want to double-check that your provider or pharmacy is giving you the vaccine specifically designed for people 65 and over,” said Dr. Katugaha.
While vaccination is recommended for all by the end of October each year, getting the shot after that can still provide protection during the peak of the season, reminded Dr. Katugaha.
“Fortunately, the shot is covered by most insurance plans and is available at low to no cost for those without insurance.”
Other tips to avoid getting the flu
In addition to getting your flu shot, Dr. Katugaha recommended a few steps to help prevent getting and spreading the flu:
- Use respiratory etiquette. Remember to cough and sneeze into your elbow, arm or a tissue.
- Wash your hands. Use soap and water, and do it often.
- Don’t touch your face. You can catch the flu by touching something with the virus on it, so avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.
- Maintain your distance. Avoid close contact with those who have the flu.
- Stay home if you’re sick.
Looking for a flu vaccine?
Your primary care physician or child's pediatrician may be offering it. We recommend checking with the office before you go to ensure supply. Flu vaccines are also available at Walgreens, CareSpot and other retail locations.
Sources: CDC: Key Facts about Season Flu Vaccine; CDC: Flu & People 65 years and Older
